FX Options Insights 30/01/25
This week, the market remains relatively unperturbed by data and central bank events, leading to subdued implied volatility levels after a drop following the U.S. presidential inauguration. However, a notable exception is the anticipation surrounding Donald Trump's planned trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico, scheduled for the upcoming weekend. This impending development has caused a surge in implied volatility for USD/CAD, reaching a two-year high, signalling elevated concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on USD/CAD dynamics and the CAD's weakening.
USD/JPY's implied volatility, though retracting from Monday's peak, remains above last week's six-month lows, influencing market movements. Risk reversals in one-month expiry options have also spiked to their highest levels since 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment. EUR/USD is facing restrictions due to substantial option strike expiries near the 1.0400 level this week, with further expiries anticipated next week, complicating significant movements within the 1.0350-1.0450 range absent fresh catalysts.
Shorter-term implied volatility is facing pressure, with the benchmark one-month contract showing vulnerability after last week's decline from 9.2 to 7.2. The evolving market landscape reveals the intricate interplay of geopolitical events, economic factors, and market sentiments shaping currency movements and emphasising the need for informed decision-making in the face of dynamic developments.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!