FX Options Insights 18/10/24
The expectation that there is nothing to excite foreign exchange markets prior to the U.S. election but a lot of risks to hedge once it is over is supported by price behaviour in FX options. Particularly for options that expire before the U.S. election, implied volatility is being impacted by the recent and ongoing absence of FX realised volatility. Implied volatility with a three-month maturity are more constrained by the possibility of higher post-U.S. election FX realised volatility. Demand and premium for USD calls have increased this week as Donald Trump and his inflationary ideas gain ground. Risk reversals show the higher premium of USD calls, which enable holders to purchase the USD at a later time.
One-month EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals hit their highest levels for USD calls over puts since early July at 0.5. Gains for one-month GBP/USD risk reversals were comparable, while for one-month AUD/USD risk reversals, they reached 0.9 USD calls over puts. The spot decline to the low 1.08s has boosted EUR/USD implied volatility, with demand for USD calls and 6-12-month expiries being observed through associated risk reversals.
When Trump was elected president of the United States in 2016, Asian currencies suffered the most, therefore it is not surprising that implied volatility for the USD/CNH and USD/SGD, two-month expiry, reached two-year highs. Due to the absence of present realised volatility and the abundance of future event risk, the USD/JPY implied volatility has actually decreased and may be a decent investment at the current level. A Trump victory is also anticipated to hurt the AUD/USD, which may break some important support levels. Several tactics can be used to guard against such situation. Price behavior in FX options supports the notion that there won't be much to excite foreign exchange markets prior to the U.S. election but plenty of risks to hedge afterward.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!