FX Options Insights 17/10/24
The absence of current FX realised volatility is reflected in the pressure on shorter-dated expiration implied volatility in the majority of major currency pairings. Until the U.S. election, when implied volatility is greater and better supported, this is not anticipated to alter significantly.
Even in EUR-related pairs, which now incorporate Thursday's ECB policy announcement, overnight expiration implied volatility is still quite low. In 2024, the FX volatility risk premium/break-even is 45 USD pips, the lowest for an ECB policy statement.
If former President Donald Trump wins the election on November 5, the USD appears prepared to continue its current rebound, with recent polling improvements fueling demand for USD call options. If the value of the USD does rise, holders of USD call options would be able to purchase it at more advantageous prices.
The implied volatility premiums for USD calls over USD puts have already risen in recent weeks due to option risk reversals involving the USD vs several of the major currencies, and they should continue to be well supported. This USD call premium, which would increase implied volatility and FX option prices, highlights the anticipated danger of further USD advances.
A French bank suggests several AUD put/USD call strategies to hedge against the possibility that a Trump victory would cause the largest losses in the AUD/USD exchange market.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!