FX Options Insights 15/10/24
The pressure on the implied volatility of FX options is maintained by another day of FX consolidation and low volatility.
Although EUR/USD touched below 1.0900, the FX options market was not sufficiently stimulated. It would require a surprising hold to rekindle associated FX volatility, since the ECB is generally expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. The degree of that risk starting on Wednesday will be shown by overnight expiration implied volatility.
Before the pair fell back to 149.00, recent USD/JPY advances were restrained by 150.00 binary option obstacles and associated defence. The market appears to be hedging against the possibility of a larger JPY response, as seen by the demand for FX options for JPY calls following the BoJ policy announcement on October 31. Given the next monthly U.S. payrolls, the November Fed meeting, and the U.S. election, the premium decline for 1-month expiration options may provide superior value.
The short-term prognosis is shown by the declining implied volatility of the GBP/USD exchange rate. The benchmark 1-month expiration has returned a large portion of its gains following the U.S. election, which caused it to rise from 7.5 to 8.75 to trade 8.1 on Tuesday. Butterfly spread sellers in EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also consistent with the current forecasts of minimal FX volatility. Nonetheless, robust implied volatility premiums for USD calls through 1-month risk reversals indicate that more USD gains remain a possibility, particularly in the event that Donald Trump wins the US election.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!