FX Options Insights 10/09/24
Price activity in FX options points to traders expecting a period of reduced FX volatility prior to an early November revival.
Options expiring at the end of October have implied volatility somewhat low, hence, sellers have been controlling the rather small trade volumes. But benchmark 1-month expiration options include U.S. NFP data, U.S. election outcomes, and the U.S. policy decision taken in early November, where corresponding FX volatility risk premiums are much greater.
Showing the most susceptible side of that pairing, benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD risk reversals record their largest downside strike implied volatility premiums since early July at 0.4. EUR/USD's downside, however, might be constrained to the middle of the longer term range of 1.0800. With its 1-month risk reversals reaching new recent highs for GBP puts over calls at 0.5, GBP/USD has also shown similar price movement.
Comparatively to its 1-month historical volatility measure at 13.2, USD/JPY 1-month implied volatility has retraced its post U.S. election inclusion increase from 12.5 to 13.75 and would suggest possible value. Below certain important technical resistance levels, barriers at 150.00 remain firm.
While post U.S. election dates has lifted the 1-month USD/CNH implied volatility to new highs since Dec 2022 above 8.0, USD/CNH options are looking to Saturday's stimulus announcement as a possible volatility/directional catalyst.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!