FX Options Insight 31/10/24
Options become more influential when the market is quiet, and the EUR/USD pair is undoubtedly quiet, as seen by the fact that this year's range is inside last year's, which was the second-smallest range ever recorded. using the increasing appeal of big expiries and the abundance of options serving as an effective anchor for this listless currency pair, the impact of hedging using options—of which there are plenty around current levels—is probably going to increase. There are a lot of expiries every day. On October 30, 9 billion euros worth of options in a 1.5% range between 1.0775 and 1.0925 rolled off, while on Tuesday, about 6 billion euros worth of options expired in a somewhat smaller range of 1.0780 to 1.0885. There is more demand in hedging these options and they are more attractive the closer they are to the spot price at expiration. It will be difficult for EUR/USD to depart from the middle of last year's range around 1.0862, to which it has frequently returned over the last two years, because on most days, options worth billions of euros are close by when they expire at 3 PM GMT (the New York cut). To force a break, a significant shock or fundamental shift is required, and as the year draws to a close, the likelihood of one is dwindling every day.
There are over 12 billion euros of options expiring between 1.0775-1.0950, and hedging related to this will limit movement. Very large expiries close to the spot rate can be magnetic, and on Thursday there are EUR 3.4 billion of expiries at 1.0900. Options may keep EUR/USD in a tighter range.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!