FX Options Insight 24/07/24
The focus is on the JPY in the FX options market as central banks prepare to make announcements. On Wednesday, mild risk aversion supported the USD, leading to a surge in the Japanese yen and its related FX option implied volatility. JPY short covering has driven the currency to new highs against the USD since early May, with 1-month USD/JPY implied volatility reaching its highest level since May 3 at 10.6. Additionally, JPY calls over puts have reached longer-term highs at 1.8.
The JPY surge and USD demand have influenced other currency pairs and implied volatility, although the impact has been limited. EUR/USD 1-week expiry implied volatility has increased from the lower 4's to 5.2 for 1-month, but these levels are still close to recent and long-term lows, reflecting expectations of low FX realized volatility. GBP/USD 1-month implied volatility remains in the low 6's, with risk reversals staying close to long-term lows for GBP puts.
AUD/USD 1-month implied volatility only saw a slight increase to 8.7 as spot tested below 0.6600, with significant support preventing further losses.
Upcoming central bank policy announcements, including the BoJ, are expected to impact JPY-related implied volatility. Additionally, renewed gains in EUR and GBP related implied volatility are anticipated following the policy announcements from the Fed on July 31 and the BoE on August 1.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!