USDCHF Pushing On

Following a brief correction lower, USDCHF is pushing higher again today. The rally comes on the back of the latest Swiss inflation data which showed that CPI contracted 0.1% last month, down from 0.2% the prior month and below the 0% the market was looking for. The drop in inflation suggests that the SNB will remain on hold in the coming months given the surprise hold we saw last time around. The bank opted to keep rates on hold at 1.75% last month, despite consensus calling for a further hike. In its decision statement, the bank revised both its growth and inflation forecasts lower. Similar to what we heard from the ECB, the focus appeared to be on downside risks, suggesting that tightening is now done.

Fed/SNB Divergence

In terms of USDCHF action, the clear driver is the divergence between the market’s outlook for the SNB and the Fed. With the Fed widely pegged to hike rates one further time this year, along with holding rates at higher levels for longer than initially projected, USD looks likely to continue higher near-term. Looking ahead this week, incoming US labour market data on Friday will be key to watch with any upside in this data likely to drive the rally higher still near-term.

Technical Views

USDCHF

The rally in USDCHF has seen the market breaking out above the bear trend line and above several key resistance levels recently. Price is now testing the .9189 level and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher and a test of the .9439 level above. To the downside, .9079 is the key support to watch.