BTC Caught in The Middle

Despite seasonal trends pointing to October as one of the best performing months for BTC, we’ve seen very little action so far with price simply treading water within September’s monthly range. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuating central bank action and a lack of optimism over China, are keeping BTC prices hemmed in for now. Looking ahead this week, we could see some fresh volatility if we get a meaningful surprise in tomorrow’s US CPI data. The recent downturn in Fed easing expectations has curtailed risk markets for now. However, if US CPI undershoots forecasts this tomorrow, this could revive the Fed-easing trade.

US Elections Impact

For Bitcoin, however, the bigger issue remains the upcoming US elections. The market has essentially taken the view that only a Trump win is likely to give Bitcoin the near-term boost it needs for a fresh breakout. Seen as the pro-crypto candidate, a Trump win would open the way for an easier regulatory environment for crypto, ushering in a flood of demand, especially with the recent institutional flow now able to access the market through ETFs.

However, a Harris win looks likely to maintain the status quo and while Bitcoin could certainly still advance over the medium term, near-term there is likely to be a wave of disappointment that keeps BTC pressured lower. As such, incoming polling results as we head closer to Nov 5th should prove to be highly informative for BTC prices.

Technical Views

BTC

BTC remains rangebound between 60,695 and 65,025 for now. Sat within the middle of the corrective bear channel from YTD highs and the broader 53,525 – 72,550 range, the market continues to lack direction, simply rotating between support and resistance levels for now, reflected in the mostly flat momentum studies readings.