Risk Appetite Weakens Amidst Fresh Ukraine Fears
Global equities indices have come back under pressure this week amidst the ongoing softening in risk appetite. Investors have been shocked and concerned over recent news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. News of mass civilian murders in various parts of Ukraine, as well as the more recent news this week that Russia has allegedly used chemical weapons, has fuelled fresh uncertainty around the conflict. Prior to these recent headlines, risk appetite had been improving steadily on hopes that peace talks might soon produce a ceasefire. However, in light of recent news, traders now judge that any such ceasefire or resolution will likely be much harder to achieve, if at all. Additionally, Zelensky has warned that Russia is planning to launch a fresh offensive within the coming days under a new general in a bid to reignite its invasion effort. In light of this, markets are fearful over what the coming days and weeks will bring, reflected in lower risk appetite across the board this week.
Equities have also been knocked lower following hawkish developments last week from the Fed. A series of Fed members spoke in support of a faster pace of tightening, citing larger-than-usual rate hikes and a quicker pace of balance sheet run-off. These comments came alongside the release of the March FOMC minutes which saw the Fed confirming its support for run-off of $95 billion per-month, starting in May, alongside many members showing support for larger .5% hikes over the year.
Technical Views
DAX
The test of the channel top and 14791.27 level has seen the index turning lower again. Price has now broken back below the 14170.79 level and, with both MACD and RSI turning lower, the focus is on a test of the 13672.31 level next. A break of this region will be firmly bearish for the DAX.
S&P 500
Failure on the move above 4575.50 has seen the market turning sharply lower with price now back comfortably beneath the 4475.25 level. While below here, and with both MACD and RSI turning lower, the focus is on a test of deeper support at the 4295.75 level next.
FTSE
For now, the FTSE continues to hold near recent highs, capped by the bull channel top. Price is sitting on 7558.7 support for now and, though both MACD and RSI are starting to move lower, while this level holds, the focus is on further upside and a break of 7691.6 next. To the downside, 7362.6 is the next support to note.
NIKKEI
The failure at the channel top and 28356.6 level has seen the market turning firmly lower with the Nikkei now testing support at the 26246 level. With both MADC and RSI bearish, the focus is on a continuation lower towards the channel low and 25595.3 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.