FOMC Expectations Weighing on Nasdaq

US stocks are trading tentatively ahead of the FOMC later today. Looking at the Nasdaq, the index has pulled back from the recent YTD highs and is currently sitting around 3% lower. Expectations are split ahead of the Fed later with the base case scenario being that the Fed hikes again while signalling that it will remain in data dependent mode going forward. If seen, this should keep stocks underpinned near-term in line with the broad market view that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The recent drop in inflation means CPI is sitting only around 1% above the Fed’s target and falling steadily. As such, stocks look to have room to move higher on the back of the meeting, particularly if the Fed is seen sounding more upbeat on its inflation outlook and the recent disinflationary trends we’ve seen.

Teach Earnings in Focus

The recent pullback in key tech stocks has been an issue for the Nasdaq. Last week, Tesla shares plummeted as traders displayed concern over the company’s plunging margins. With CEO Elon Musk citing ‘turbulent times’, broader risk sentiment was impacted by the reaction. This week, however, there has been better news with Alphabet beating forecasts on AI driven gains. Looking ahead, Meta earnings later today will be the next big focus for the tech sector with Wall Street looking for a beat on both earnings and revenues.

Technical Views

Nasdaq

The correction lower from the 16010.4 level has seen the market trading back down to retest the top of the bullish channel. Price is currently holding at this area as support and, while above here, the focus is on a further push higher. However, it is worth noting bearish divergence on momentum studies readings which suggest room for a deeper correction if support at 15177.5 is broken, opening the way for a test of 14288.2 next.