SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 6/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6400 SUP 6130
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6380/90
DAILY RANGE RES 6383 SUP 6266
2 SIGMA RES 6441 SUP 6208
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.50
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6315
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE SUP TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: MARKET WOBBLE
Date: 5 August 2025 |
Market Summary:
- S&P 500: -49bps, closed at 6,299 with MOC $1.2B to BUY.
- NASDAQ (NDX): -73bps, closed at 23,018.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +60bps, closed at 2,225.
- Dow Jones: -14bps, closed at 44,111.
- VIX: +188bps, now at 17.85.
- Crude Oil: -170bps, priced at $65.16.
- US 10-Year Yield: +1bps, now at 4.21%.
- Gold: +21bps, at $3,380.
- DXY Index: -2bps, at 98.77.
- Bitcoin: Unchanged at $113,685.
- Total Volume: 16.4B shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges vs YTD daily average of 16.8B shares.
Market Drivers:
Equities showed instability at the index level, driven by weaker ISM data (all underlying metrics sequentially worse, with clear tariff impacts) and tough EPS reactions in TMT sectors. Treasury yields edged higher after a softer 3-year auction, with attention shifting toward 10-year auctions tomorrow and 30-year auctions on Thursday. EPS reactions remain challenging for both beats and misses, leading to elevated frustration levels. Market positioning reflects visible pain, with hedge fund VIP vs most short (GSPRHVMS) trading down 236bps.
Activity Levels:
Floor activity rated 5/10 overall. The floor finished at -168bps for sale vs a 20-day average of +62bps.
- LOs (Long-Only Investors): Slight net sellers, buying healthcare but selling financials and macro products.
- HFs (Hedge Funds): Bought industrials while selling discretionary, tech, and energy stocks.
Liquidity may thin out in the coming weeks, with S&P top-of-book average at $8.15M. ETF tape normalized at 28%, in line with YTD averages.
Post-Market Movers:
- ANET: +7%, beat expectations and guided above.
- ALAB: +11%, strong performance with positive guidance.
- SWKS: +9%, exceeded expectations and guided higher.
- AMD: -3% (from initial +1%), solid revenue beat at $7.7B vs consensus $7.43B. 3Q revenue guided above estimates ($8.4-9B vs consensus $8.37B).
- BBIO: -15%, missed ATTR CM expectations ($71M vs ~$85M est.) after heightened expectations following strong ALNY results last week. Crowded positioning into the report exacerbated the decline.
- SMCI: +11%, slight revenue miss with gross margins down ~70bps y/y. FY26 revenue guidance raised to “at least” $33B vs consensus ~$30B. Company plans to expand large-scale datacenter customers from four in FY25 to six-to-eight in FY26.
- SNAP: -15%, 2Q revenues at $1.345B (+9% y/y), with North America DAUs down ~1M q/q to 98M (similar decline q/q last quarter).
- TOST: -2% (after opening +5% and dropping as low as -10%), modest beat vs expectations but fell short of high market expectations.
- UPST: -11% (after opening +10%), missed on originations (~$3B), disappointing elevated expectations.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!