SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 25/04/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 5250/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 5476 SUP 5146
DAILY ONE TF DOWN 5262
WEEKLY ONE TF DOWN 5496
MONTHLY ONE TF DOWN 5997
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 5480/70
DAILY RANGE RES 5579 SUP 5460
2 SIGMA RES 5843 SUP 5195
5610 GAP LEVELS
(QUOTING FRONT MONTH EMINI SP500 FUTURES CONTRACT PRICES, FOR EQUIVALENT US500 LEVELS – 30 POINTS)
WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4oaIdrVRmI&t=114s
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY RANGE RES TARGET 5610 GAP FILL
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: TECH DRIVES GAINS
24 April 2025
The U.S. equities market saw a significant boost from the tech sector today. The S&P 500 closed up 203 basis points at 5,375 with a Market-On-Close buy of $3.2 billion. The NASDAQ rose 279 basis points to 19,214, the Russell 2000 increased by 199 basis points to 1,964, and the Dow Jones climbed 123 basis points to 40,093. A total of 15.2 billion shares were traded across all U.S. equity exchanges, compared to the year-to-date daily average of 16.3 billion shares. The VIX decreased by 696 basis points to 26.47, while crude oil gained 84 basis points to $62.81. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.31%, gold rose 203 basis points to 3,361, the dollar index dropped 58 basis points to 99.26, and Bitcoin increased by 7 basis points to $93,531.
The NASDAQ experienced its third consecutive day of gains exceeding 2%, now less than 2% away from levels seen prior to Liberation Day on April 2. Positive earnings, a relaxed volatility backdrop with the VIX below 27, stable interest rates, and improved market positioning contributed to a robust rally in the tech sector. There was notable activity in non-profitable tech, high beta cyclicals, and heavily shorted stocks, all seeing gains of around 4%.
Overall activity levels were rated a 4 on a 1-10 scale. Our trading floor finished 204 basis points better for sale compared to a 30-day average of -63 basis points. Long-only investors ended as net buyers by $750 million, driven by tech and macro trends, while hedge funds were slight net sellers, influenced by tech and financial sectors. Similar to yesterday, there was renewed interest from U.S. long-only investors in megacap stocks. Interestingly, international selling, which was significant last week, was absent today. After the market closed, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 6% due to strong search revenue, while Gilead Sciences (GILD) fell 4.4%, SkyWest (SKYW) gained 3.8%, and Eastman Chemical (EMN) dropped 4%.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with ongoing debate about the sustainability of this rally, especially considering potential policy changes, slowing economic data, and possible declines in earnings per share trends after a strong start. Notable companies in the tech, media, and telecommunications sectors like Netflix (NFLX), ServiceNow (NOW), SAP, and Amphenol (APH) are among the highest-quality names.
In derivatives, the market continued its upward grind as gamma strategies paid off, with straddles realizing gains every day this week. There were two-way flows, including small upside selling and rolling up of downside hedges. Renewed interest in megacap tech upside was noted as the VIX reached its lowest closing level since Liberation Day. VIX buying was prevalent in the May tenor as volatility of volatility compressed significantly over the week. Dealers were short gamma in minimal size across all scenarios, allowing the market to move freely. Tomorrow's straddle is priced at 1.25%
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!