SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 15/

8/25


WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS


***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6350/60

WEEKLY RANGE RES 6504 SUP 6324

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6440/50

DAILY RANGE RES 6542 SUP 6425

2 SIGMA RES 6600 SUP 6368

GAP LEVELS 6367/6264/6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710 

VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17

DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6466

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.

TRADES & TARGETS

SHORT ON TEST REJECT WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 

SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS

U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: UNCHANGED

FICC and Equities

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14 August 2025 | 9:24 PM UTC

S&P increased by 3bps, closing at 6,468 with a market on close of $112 million to sell.

NDX decreased by 7bps at 23,832, R2K down 132bps at 2,305, and Dow up 2bps at 44,911.

Total trading volume reached 16.7 billion shares across all U.S. equity exchanges, compared to the year-to-date daily average of 16.9 billion shares.

VIX rose by 235bps to 14.83, Crude oil up 209bps at $63.96, US 10YR increased by 5bps at 4.28%, gold down 74bps at $3,383, DXY up 37bps at 98.20, and Bitcoin decreased by 375bps to $118,000.

SPX/NDX remained roughly flat while RTY slipped lower following a hotter-than-expected PPI reading (0.9% vs +0.2% M/M). Relevant PCE tracking components showed mixed results; airline passenger services were up 1% M/M, portfolio management fees advanced by 5.8%, yet healthcare components related to PCE came in weaker.

The PPI with the 'old methodology' showed a softer increase of 0.3% M/M. GS economists revised July's core PCE estimates up by 1bp to 27bps. The market is still forecasting approximately 56bps in cuts by year-end.

We're monitoring momentum closely, as our high-beta momentum basket, GSPRHIMO, has dropped about 5.5% over the last three sessions. Our baskets team noted that the second half of August may bring additional risks to the momentum factor: neglected market segments could re-rate higher, with equity factor valuations leaning defensively, potentially setting the stage for rotation and positioning that remains significantly high in our prime book (1-year peak and in the 88th percentile over the past 5 years). Concerning July highs, we may anticipate a further selloff of approximately 5-6% in momentum before a buying opportunity arises (which has historically proven effective). (TY Guillaume Soria)

Our activity floor registered a 4 on a scale of 1-10 for overall activity levels. Our floor ended flat compared to a 30-day average of +27bps. Client activity has been decreasing.

LOs ended as slight net buyers, led by healthcare, financials, and macro products. HFs remained nearly flat, with demand for tech and financials countered by supply in macro products.

POST-BELL:

AMAT fell 11% in after-hours trading due to disappointing guidance; SNDK down 10% in AH following weak GMs/EPS guidance; UNH up 4% in AH thanks to Berkshire Hathaway's new stake.

DERIVATIVES:

Both volatility and skew rose slightly during the day as realized volatility remains subdued. A significant factor in this is dealer gamma, currently around $9.5 billion—the third-highest level in the last three years. Client activity was limited as we noted customers rolling calls up and purchasing VIX call spreads to initiate positions. Ahead of OPEX, we project over $2.9 trillion in notional options exposure will expire this Friday (08/15), including $1.1 trillion in SPX options and $715 billion in single-stock options. The notional open interest for this expiration is the highest ever recorded for August. Tomorrow's straddle stands at 0.46%. (TY Braden Burke)