UK CPI Beats Forecasts Again
The British Pound is seeing firm demand across the European open today in response to the latest UK economic data. The Office for National Statistics published its November CPI report today, showing that consumer prices rose once again last month, above forecasts. Headline CPI was seen rising at 5.1% over the month, a firm rise on the prior month’s 4.2% reading and well above the 4.8% figure the market was looking for. Similarly, core inflation was seen rising by 4%, up from the prior month’s 3.4% reading and the projected 3.7% reading. To this latest increase in perspective, inflation in the UK is now at its highest level since Q3 2011.
Energy Prices Soaring
Looking at the breakdown of the data, the biggest contribution came from rising energy prices. Petrol prices specifically were seen hitting their highest level on record in the UK over November at 145.8p per litre, up from 112.6p twelve months ago. Used vehicle prices were also seen driving upward contribution having risen a further 3.1% on the prior month. Cumulatively, used vehicle prices are up over 30% since Q1.Along with these headline price increases, clothing, food and tobacco prices were all higher also.
Pressure on BOE
This latest data, along with solid employment data released yesterday, now puts the BOE in an incredibly difficult position. With inflation soaring well above target, and above the BOE’s own projections, the squeeze on consumers is becoming vice like. However, the uncertainty around Omicron, especially in the light of fresh government restrictions enacted this week, makes it a very difficult time for the BOE to raise rates. The risk of further restrictions over the coming month looks very high given the growth rate of covid cases currently. With this in mind, the BOE might opt to wait until February to see how the situation develops. However, the risk (which the IMF warned the BOE over this week) is that inaction might lead to inflation becoming entrenched, making it harder to address in the future.
Technical Views
GBPUSD
Technically speaking, GBPUSD still looks primed for a pop higher. The recent consolidation into the bottom of the channel has seen plenty of bullish divergence in momentum studies. Additionally, the retail long position is starting to reduce here creating room for a squeeze higher. If we do correct upward, 1.3461 and above there, the channel top/1.3676 region are the two areas to watch for potential short opportunities.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.