PCE & ISM Manufacturing Up Next
Looking ahead to today’s US session, the key focus will be on the remaining tier one data of the week with US PCE and ISM manufacturing both up next. Given the hawkish shift in Fed commentary over the last week, including hawkish comments this week from several Fed members, US data will take on even greater importance as we move closer towards November. The market is looking at November as being the likely announcement date for tapering and any US data strength is likely to fuel a higher USD in the near term. On the other hand, any data misses will dilute expectations though it would likely take a strong miss to send USD meaningfully lower.
On the PCE font, the market is looking for 0.2%, down from 0.3% prior, creating a low barrier for an upside surprise. On the ISM manufacturing reading then, the market is looking for 59.6 from 59.9, again creating room for an upside surprise.
Where to Trade Today’s US Data?
Gold
The recent sell off in gold from the 1826.71 level has seen price trading back down to around the broken bear channel top. While this area holds, there is room for a continuation higher. However, should today’s data drive USD higher, the focus will be on a break lower, targeting 1700 and 1634.74 thereafter.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.