June ECB Meeting Up Next
The key data focus for traders today will be the June ECB meeting. Hawkish expectations are already elevated ahead of the meeting with the market looking for the bank to announce an end to asset purchases along with giving a clear signal that a July rate hike is coming. With EUR higher ahead of the meeting, the bar to further upside has been raised here. However, if the ECB takes a stridently hawkish tone, perhaps signalling the need for aggressive action (suggesting a larger than .25% hike in July), this would likely see EUR higher on the back of the meeting. Alternatively, if the ECB fails to appear more hawkish than previously or if the bank strikes more of a concerned tone over the projected impact of tightening on the eurozone economy, this might see EUR under pressure as late longs unwind positions.
Where to Trade the ECB Meeting?
EURJPY
The breakout in EURJPY has the market exploding through recent highs to trade up and test the 143.80 resistance level. While this level is holding for now, a hawkish ECB outcome today will likely provide fuel for the next move higher towards 145.81 next. Additionally tomorrow’s US CPI number, if bullish, is more likely to hurt JPY than EUR, keeping focus on further upside for the pair while above 140.82.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.