NFP Up Next
The key data focus today is of course the July US labour reports. On the headline NFP number, the market is looking for 870k, up from the prior month’s 850k. Average hourly earnings are expected unchanged at 0.3% while the unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 5.9% to 5.7%.With US data generally improving, and only modest positive expectations here, there is room for a USD upside move if we get a strong beat. The jobs figure especially could see a firm surprise given the higher activity levels over July, taking into account the return of seasonal work. With USD still at relatively subdued levels over the last month, it would certainly take some strong data today to affect a shift in sentiment.
Where to Trade the NFP?
AUDUSD
Following the declines of the last month, AUDUSD is currently sitting in a block of consolidation between the .7339 and .7413 levels. The current move is seen as corrective for now, however, framed by the bear flag formation. If USD does pop higher today, bears will look for the downtrend to resume with a break of .7339 targeting .7243 initially.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.