EURAUD Threatens Downside Break

Price action in EURAUD has piqued my interest here. The pair has essentially been grinding higher in a long, slow corrective channel over the year to date. However, the move has recently started to show signs of faltering following what looks to be false upside breakout. Price is now testing the channel low and big support at the 1.5876 level, a break of which will open the way for a test of the 1.55671 level initially. With the retail community holding a more than 70% long position, there is plenty of room for a downside move to gather pace, supported by bearish readings on both MACD and RSI.

Key Data to Watch

The RBA meeting overnight saw the central bank staying on hold. However, with the bank basically looking to tighten as soon as the economy allows, there are upside risks for AUD on any strong Aussie data. Little in the way of key data for either economy this week so keep an eye on broader risk flows instead as well as any COVID updates.