US Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities | 23 June 2025 |
Consolidated Recap of GS Positioning Metrics
Summary:
1. CTA Corner:
- CTAs are currently long $75bn in global equities (64th percentile) after selling $3.3bn last week.
- In the US, this group holds $21bn long positions.
- Projections for the next week and month indicate mostly selling, but the expected volume is minimal.
2. GS PB Performance:
- The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate declined by -0.50% between 6/13 and 6/19 (compared to MSCI World TR at -1.43%). This was driven by beta of -0.68%, partially offset by alpha of +0.17% due to long-side gains.
- The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate dropped -0.82% during the same period, primarily due to alpha losses of -0.88% on long-side positions, slightly balanced by beta gains of +0.06%.
3. Buybacks:
- Currently, approximately 70% of buybacks are in a blackout window, with this figure expected to rise to 85% by the end of the week.
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CTA Corner Details
CTA Flows:
- Next 1 Week:
- Flat tape: Sellers $10.03B ($1.06B out of the US)
- Up tape: Sellers $4.87B ($0.09B out of the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $32.13B ($9.29B out of the US)
- Next 1 Month:
- Flat tape: Buyers $15.80B ($7.32B into the US)
- Up tape: Buyers $44.40B ($11.47B into the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $137.65B ($43.05B out of the US)
Key Pivot Levels for SPX:
- Short-term: 5867
- Medium-term: 5826
- Long-term: 5596
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!