Key US Data Due
Gold prices are holding near highs on Tuesday as traders brace for a slew of key US data over the coming sessions. Looking ahead today, US consumer confidence and the JOLTS job openings number will be watched ahead of the ADP employment figure and advance quarterly GDP tomorrow. On Thursday, focus will then turn to the core PCE number ahead of the headline NFP labour market report on Friday. An upside surprise in last month’s NFP data saw USD trading firmly higher as traders scaled back near-term Fed easing expectations. If we see any further upside on Friday we could see this dynamic strengthen as traders further reduce dovish Fed expectations.
US Elections
Gold prices have remained bid in recent weeks, despite the resurgence in USD strength. This resilience has largely been attributed to uncertainty ahead of the US elections next week, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks linked to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Israel’s war in the Middle East.
NFP in Focus
If we see any meaningful move higher in USD in coming days linked to any bullish data surprises, this could weigh on gold sentiment, particularly if we get another unexpectedly strong NFP. However, given the proximity to the elections, gold prices look likely to remain supported near-term and it would take some big data surprises to shake the current dynamic.
Technical Views
Gold
The rally in gold has seen the market breaking out above the 2,684.76 level. With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continued push higher while price holds above this level. Back below here, focus turns to 2,604.56 as the next support to watch.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.