FX Options Insights 14/09/24

Lack of short-term realised volatility expectations is reflected in the lower implied volatility of shorter-term foreign currency options. The premiums for options with overnight and next-day expirations are at their lowest points since July. There is additional pressure on implied volatility in options with a one to two week expiration. Implied volatility with a one-month expiry is declining, but it is more difficult to withstand the losses because the expiry includes the US election. While USD/CNH one-month expiration implied volatility is still at its highest level since late 2022, USD/MXN one-month implied volatility continues to hold the largest gains attributable to the U.S. election. The demand and premium for USD call options that would profit from post-election USD increases have surged, according to price activity in numerous USD relative to key currencies.