FX Options Insights 11/06/25
FX option implied volatility has been steadily declining across most currency pairs and expiry dates, reaching recent lows. Even Wednesday's U.S. CPI data, which came in weaker than expected, was largely priced as a non-event. This triggered a minor short-gamma-related USD drop.Shorter-dated expiry options may start to gain support ahead of next week’s central bank policy announcements, including the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, Japan's BoJ is already priced into 1-week expiry options, and the limited implied volatility premiums suggest the market does not anticipate significant JPY-related volatility following the announcement.
USD/JPY remains near the midpoint of its recent 150-140 range, with a substantial $7-billion 145.00 strike option potentially playing a pivotal role before its expiration on Monday.EUR/USD continues to struggle for momentum to break 1.1500 and challenge the cluster of topside knock-out trigger options above mid-April highs at 1.1572. The implied volatility and the premiums for EUR call options relative to USD put options, as indicated by risk reversals, remain subdued. GBP/USD saw demand for downside strikes after Tuesday's UK jobs data, pointing to growing concerns about a potential FX setback. Meanwhile, AUD/USD options show a focus on higher strikes, though ongoing declines in implied volatility align with the pair’s slow upward progress for now. USD/CNH options are mirroring the trend seen in other major currencies against the USD, reflecting improved risk appetite and subdued realized FX volatility within established ranges.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!