Retail Heavily Short GBPCAD
The retail market is holding a large short position in GBPCAD, currently around 80%, making it a strong candidate to monitor for long opportunities. GBP has been stronger recently against a backdrop of increasingly hawkish BOE expectations. The latest UK inflation reading showed CPI holding above the 10% level on the headline figure and around 6% on the core measure. With inflation still not falling as much as the BOE would like traders are anticipating further tightening action from them at next month’s meeting and likely beyond as the bank battles to bring price pressures under control.
BOC/BOE Divergence Supporting GBPCAD
With the BOC having paused its tightening campaign and steadily falling CAD CPI suggesting little likelihood of a return to tightening, the divergence between the BOC and BOE should keep the pair supported near-term. Oil prices are a key input to watch for CAD of course and any fresh strength in oil prices will likely help boost CAD near-term. For now, however, while the current dynamic remains in play, GBPCAD looks poised for further gains.
Technical Views
GBPCAD
The pair is currently up against resistance at the 1.6848 level and with momentum studies still bullish, the focus for now is on a breakout above there with 1.7129 the next big resistance to note. To the downside, any correction lower from current highs should find support on a retest of the 1.6717 level, keeping the medium-term bull view in play.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.