Euro Testing Key Level
EURUSD is testing a key level today with price still hugging the 1.1589 level. This has been a key pivot for the market in recent months and how price resolves here will likely inform the next phase of price action in EURUSD. The pair remains up off last week’s lows for now but has yet to see any proper follow through on the post-NFP rally. A dovish shift in the market’s Fed pricing in response to Friday’s jobs data has seen USD trailing off again. This move was reinforced yesterday by weaker-than-forecast US ISM services data. However, for now the 1.1589 level is holding as resistance with traders seemingly awaiting a stronger catalyst for a fresh move.
Fed Speakers Due
Looking ahead today there is little in the way of EZ or US data, beyond weaker-than-forecast EZ retail sales just released, though we do have some Fed speakers scheduled. If we see comments leaning to the dovish side, following that weak jobs data, this could put fresh pressure on USD allowing the pair to climb through the middle of the week. Given the shift in Fed pricing, USD looks vulnerable to fresh downside going forward, in response to any further data weakness and/or dovish Fed pricing.
Technical Views
EURUSD
For now, EURUSD is holding below the 1.1589 level following the breakdown below the rising trend line from YTD lows. If this resistance holds, focus is on a test of deeper support at 1.1209 next. To the topside, a break back above 1.1589 will put 1.1899 on watch as the next bull objective.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.