Dovish Fed Minutes
The US Dollar remains weak today following the June FOMC minutes, released yesterday, which leaned on the dovish side. The minute showed growing dovish sentiment among policymakers with a small number seen in favour of cutting rates as early as July. The majority remained in favour of cutting rates later in the year though were less specific on timing. Additionally, members were seen voicing concern over the balance of risks noting that uncertainty on the economy remains elevated.
USD Outlook
In all, the meeting minutes were seen reinforcing the view that the Fed will cut rates in September with the CME group pricing in a more than 70% chance for now. Looking ahead, any fresh weakness in US data will be key for further strengthening this view. As such, USD is vulnerable to downside risks on any incoming US data softness as traders bolster their near-term easing expectations. Given the growing level of dovish expectations, however, USD will also be vulnerable to a short squeeze on any upside surprises as we saw with the recent NFP beat.
Technical Views
DXY
For now, DXY remains supported by the 96.89 level, with price attempting to move above the bear channel highs. However, while below the 98 level and with momentum studies weak, risks of a fresh break lower remain seen with 94.85 the next downside target if we do break support.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.