Dollar Dominance: A Stronghold Amidst Global Uncertainty
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The US Dollar continues its triumphant ascent as the US economy flexes its muscles against its G10 counterparts. Riding on the waves of changing short-term yield differentials, the Greenback finds itself in a favorable position, bolstered further by geopolitical tensions brewing in the Middle East.
The recent vow by Israel to retaliate against Iran, despite diplomatic efforts, has reignited concerns of conflict, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the region. This development not only underscores geopolitical fragility but also serves as a catalyst for the Dollar's rally, as investors seek refuge in its safe-haven status.
While economic data may fail to stir significant movement in the Dollar today, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve speakers, with Chairman Jerome Powell taking center stage. Powell's speech holds the potential to tip the scales, as any hint of altering rate cut expectations could trigger a substantial shift in market sentiment, propelling the Dollar even higher or prompting a sharp correction.
Equities markets, however, paint a gloomy picture, with major indexes witnessing a sharp downturn, both in the US and globally. Tuesday sees both European and Asian equities mirroring the bearish sentiment, while US futures signal a somber start to the trading day.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note edged higher, currently trading around 4.64%. A further uptick could signal anticipation of a delayed policy pause before the easing cycle takes precedence.
Turning to expectations, interest rate futures indicate a 98.2% probability of a Fed pause in the upcoming May meeting, with a mere 1.8% chance of a rate cut. However, whispers of a rate hike, though not yet reflected in the market derivatives, could potentially amplify Dollar strength once priced into the market.
Technical analysis paints a vivid picture for the Dollar Index, with key levels dictating its trajectory. The breach of the November 10 high at 106.00 catapults the DXY towards the higher boundary of the current ascending channel, with a potential breakout and pullback from the 107 level. Conversely, the critical support at 105, holding firm since February 2023, remains a key level to watch:

Shifting focus to the Pound Sterling, the currency finds itself on shaky ground amidst deteriorating labor market strength. The United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics reports a significant cooling in labor market activity, with a notable rise in the Unemployment Rate and a surge in layoffs.
Further volatility looms as the UK statistics office prepares to release consumer and producer inflation data for March. Projections suggest a slowdown in headline Consumer Price Index growth, adding to downward pressure on the Pound due to expectations of further policy divergence between the Fed and the BoE.
In Tuesday's trading, the GBP/USD pair extended its downward trajectory, breaching the crucial support at 1.25 and eyeing the round-level support at 1.2400. The Cable's technical outlook suggests a potential buyer resurgence at lower levels, according to the technical picture below:

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