Daily Market Outlook, November 19, 2024
Munnelly’s Macro Minute...
"Markets In A Holding Pattern Ahead of Trump Treasury Pick & Nvidia Earnings ”
As traders awaited President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet choices and evaluated the outlook for Federal Reserve easing, Asian equities increased on Tuesday, while U.S. bond rates and the currency stayed below recent multi-month highs. Traders are leveraging the recent market weakness to purchase equities at discounted prices, despite concerns regarding the outlook for interest rates. Markets were also supported by substantial gains in mining and energy stocks, which were led by the increasing prices of commodities. Although the potential for significant moves are somewhat constrained by Nvidia's impending earnings reports on Wednesday, tech shares rose in tandem with Wall Street's comeback from last week's sharp losses. According to CME FedWatch, market bets on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December have dropped to less than 59% from 62% the day before and more than 65% a week ago. Markets view Trump's projected fiscal expenditures, higher tariffs, and tougher immigration as inflationary, which might impede Fed rate cuts at a time when a string of strong economic data is already preventing them. Trump has started to nominate people; last week, he filled jobs in the defence and health sectors, but the Treasury secretary and trade representative, two crucial positions for the financial markets, have not yet been revealed.
The data slate in Europe today is scant, with the main event being the final consumer inflation figures for the euro zone in October. The U.S. will only see housing data. However, there are numerous central bank speakers, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid later in the day. Ahead of that, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his peers will appear in parliament, where they are likely to face questions about the implications of the government's expansive budget and the potential impact of Trump's trade policies.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
Germany, Finland Warn Of 'Hybrid Warfare' After Sea Cable Cut
BoE’s Greene Reinforces Case For Cautious Interest-Rate Cuts
UK Retailers Warn Chancellor: £7B Annual Hit From Budget Changes
UK PM Calls For 'Consistent, Durable' UK-China Ties In Xi Meet
China Tells Local Funds To Stop Buying LGFV Bonds Via HK Link
China’s Stimulus Lifts Tax Revenue For First Time This Year
BoJ To Bid Farewell To Stimulus Era, Justify Rate Hike Reviews
JGBs Consolidate; Backed Hopes BoJ May Skip Dec Rate Hike
RBA Sees Rate As Appropriate, Discusses Policy Scenarios
Dollar Consolidates; May Weighed By Lower Treasury Yields
G20 Waters Down Ukraine Support Amid Peace Talks Pressure
S&P Sees Some Signs Of A US Credit Bubble As Spreads Tighten
DoJ Will Push Google To Sell Off Chrome To Break Search Monopoly
Trump To Meet Privately With Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0500 (567M), 1.0520 (450M), 1.0540-50 (1.4BLN), 1.0565-75 (531M)
1.0590-1.0600 (1.8BLN), 1.0610-15 (315M), 1.0625-30 (541M), 1.0650 (2.4BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8765 (220M), 0.8800 (422M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9350 (340M), 0.9400 (370M)
GBP/USD: 1.2650-60 (513M), 1.2800 (237M)
AUD/USD: 0.6475-85 (450M), 0.6500 (487M), 0.6600 (2.1BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.5895 (300M). AUD/NZD: 1.1035 (348M)
USD/JPY: 154.50 (309M), 155.50 (320M)
CFTC Data As Of 15/11/24
Bitcoin net short position is -1,798 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -32,694 contracts
British pound net long position is 56,050 contracts
Euro net short position is -7,437 contracts
Japanese yen net short position is -64,902 contracts
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 86,527 contracts to 1,079,480
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 94,124 contracts to 288,809
Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 62,488 contracts to 1,423,871
Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 2,469 contracts to 815,801
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5960
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5790 opens 5700
Primary support 5795
Primary objective 6100
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0650
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.07 opens 1.08
Primary resistance 1.0950
Primary objective 1.0380
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.28 opens 1.30
Primary resistance 1.3050
Primary objective 1.25
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 154 opens 152
Primary support 148
Primary objective is 157.50
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 2590 opens 2530
Primary support 2530
Primary objective is 2800
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 85000
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 84000 opens 80000
Primary support is 64000
Primary objective is 100,000
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!