Daily Market Outlook, July 10, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

US equity index futures saw a slight decline alongside the dollar after President Donald Trump increased trade tensions by announcing a 50% tariff on copper and issuing new letters to impose higher tariffs on various countries. Treasuries and Asian shares remained relatively stable. Bitcoin surged to a record peak above $112,000 late Wednesday, driven by a growing risk appetite and ongoing interest from institutional investors as traditional finance participants welcomed the leading cryptocurrency. 

Meanwhile, Brazilian assets suffered a decline following Trump's announcement of new tariffs, including a 50% levy on goods from Brazil. Demand in Japan’s 20-year government bond auction was below average compared to the last 12 months. Copper prices rose after Trump declared that the US would enforce a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, a decision that poses challenges for producers dependent on this industrial material. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange, the global standard, increased by 0.4% to $9,664.50 per tonne, while contracts on Comex surged by nearly 3%. Global producers have swiftly acted to anticipate Trump's impending copper tariffs, including relocating deliveries to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to shorten shipping times. Investors who are pessimistic about US assets have opted to sell the dollar as part of the ‘Sell America’ strategy, the benchmark Dollar Index has dropped by 8.7% this year.

Nvidia reached a $4 trillion market capitalisation on Wednesday, becoming the first public company globally to achieve this milestone. Its shares rose 2.4% to $164, driven by strong demand for AI technologies. Nvidia previously hit $1 trillion in June 2023 and has tripled its market value in a year, outpacing Apple and Microsoft, the only other U.S. companies valued over $3 trillion. Microsoft, the second-largest U.S. firm, holds a $3.75 trillion market cap, with shares up 1.3% at $503. Nvidia has rebounded 74% since April lows, buoyed by optimism around U.S. trade deals. It accounts for 7.3% of the S&P 500, surpassing Apple and Microsoft at 7% and 6%, respectively.

Only a few officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting supported immediate interest rate cuts, while most remained concerned about inflation risks tied to President Trump’s tariff policies. Trump has demanded steep rate cuts and called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation, but the minutes revealed limited support for near-term reductions among the 19 policymakers. Some felt no cuts were necessary, and several believed the current rate was close to neutral, contradicting Trump’s push for aggressive cuts. The minutes noted most participants expected rate cuts later this year, with tariff-related price shocks likely to be temporary or modest. At the meeting, officials unanimously kept the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Despite this, traders maintained bets on a 50 basis-point cut by year-end, aligning with the Fed's median forecast.

April's GDP data showed the UK economy contracted by -0.3% m/m, signalling a weak start to Q2. There are market whispers of another decline of -0.1% m/m in May, contrasting with the consensus expectation of +0.1%. This decline could lower y/y growth to +0.5%, driven by falling manufacturing output amid weak domestic and global demand. Services are expected to stagnate, challenging the Bank of England's Q2 growth forecast of +0.25%. The dip may exacerbate fiscal pressures, raising concerns over borrowing, debt levels, and potential autumn budget measures.

Overnight Headlines

  • Dutch Pension Funds Set To Sell €125B Of Government Bonds

  • UK Homebuyer Demand Hits 6M High, First Since December

  • Trump Confirms 50% Tariff On Copper Imports To Begin August 1

  • Brazil Vows ‘Reciprocity’ After Trump’s 50% Tariff Threat

  • Senate Weigh Russia Sanctions As Trump Sharpens Putin Rhetoric

  • Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Near $112,000

  • China To Ramp Up Fiscal Support In H2 Amid Growth Risks

  • Japan's Wholesale Inflation Slows, Relieves Rake Hike Pressure

  • Japan’s Carmakers Slash US Export Prices To Offset Tariff Hit

  • Bank Of Korea Holds Rates As Growth Risks Ease

  • Nvidia Nears $4T Valuation As AI Stock Boom Accelerates

  • Ferrero Nears $3B Deal For Maker Of Froot Loops, Frosted Flakes

  • Oil Falls On Surprise US Crude Inventory Build

  • Meta Offers Over $200M To Poach Apple’s Ruoming Pang

  • Amazon Deepens Nvidia AI Alliance With New Cooling Infrastructure

  • Amazon Weighs Further Investment In Anthropic To Deepen AI Alliance

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • USD/JPY: 143.95-05 (1.2BLN), 144.10-20 (618M)

  • 144.44-50 (1.0BLN), 144.70-80 (751M), 144.85-90 (776M)

  • 145.00-10 (848M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.7950 (300M). USD/ZAR: 17.80 (534M), 18.00 (558M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3490-00 (650M), 1.3560-70 (747M), 1.3650 (285M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8595-00 (897M), 0.8630 (273M). GBP/JPY: 195.15 (260M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6500 (747M), 0.6515-25 (750M), 0.6560 (210M)

  • 0.6600-15 (920M), 0.6650 (1.1BLN). AUD/JPY: 95.65 (675M).

  • NZD/USD: 0.6000 (517M), 0.6025 (521M), 0.6050 (248M), 0.6100 (290M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3575 (480M), 1.3600 (350M), 1.3625-35 (1.31BLN)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending July 4th 

  • Speculators have raised the net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 2,672 contracts to a total of 104,457. They have also increased the net short position in CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 17,436 contracts, bringing it to 226,962. The net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been increased by 103,531 contracts, resulting in a total of 783,662. The CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position has grown by 13,373 contracts to 2,477,002, while the CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position is up by 50,444 contracts, totaling 1,280,648. 

  • Equity fund managers have boosted their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 3,352 contracts, reaching 844,576. Conversely, equity fund speculators have increased their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 29,824 contracts to 298,864. 

  • The Japanese yen net long position stands at 127,338 contracts, the Euro's at 107,537 contracts, the British pound's at 31,399 contracts, and the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -23,853 contracts. Bitcoin has a net short position of -1,756 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Pivot 5995

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Above 5995 target 6300

  • Below 5938 target 5800

EURUSD Pivot 1.1630

  • Daily VWAP bearish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish 

  • Above 1.1630 target 1.19

  • Below 1.1490 target 1.12

GBPUSD Pivot 1.3522

  • Daily VWAP bearish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Above 1.3522 target 1.38

  • Below 1.34 target 1.3270

USDJPY Pivot 147

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Above 145.18 target 147.50

  • Below 144.76 target 139

XAUUSD Pivot 3365

  • Daily VWAP bearrish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Above 3420 target 3600

  • Below 3240 target 3000

BTCUSD Pivot 105k

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Above 105k target 118k

  • Below 98.3K target 95.5k