Daily Market Outlook, January 31, 2023

Nasdaq Back At Five Week Lows, Global Stocks Still Set For First Jan Gains Since 2020
Jitters on Wall Street ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference saw investors paring risk positions, with Tesla giving back over 6% of recent gains, this led to the Nasdaq retreating by over 2% to close at five week lows. Monday’s trade got off to subdued start as Spanish inflation data came in hotter than expected, after a similar print in Australia, markets mulled a return to inflation concerns, however, this mornings French inflation print came in on the soft side, which has prompted US equity futures to turn positive on the session, those gains are proving hard to maintain as of the time of writing. Asian equities remain in the red by circa 1% but are off the worst levels from the overnight session.
European investors will eye flash Eurozone GDP data this morning, sentiment reads for the period imply positive inputs will provide a more upbeat number than the weaker Q4 data. In the UK political pressure mounts once again as Chancellor Hunt’s recovery plan appears to have done little to reassure markets, with the IMF confirming that the UK is the only G7 economy to receive a downgrade to their 2023 economic outlook, the IMF predicts the UK economy is set to decline by 0.6% in 2023 a stark contrast to the prior growth expectations of 0.3%
In the US, the employment cost index is due late today, a favourite read for Fed officials in gauging labour market cost pressures, this will provide a final indication of inflation pressures ahead of Wednesday’s key central bank decision. Market watchers have pencilled in a rise of 1.2% in line with the Q3 print, this will confirm Fed concerns that the labour market remains too tight to take their foot of the gas with respect to the current rate cycle.
Markets-wise, European bourses, FTSE & EuroStoxx are opening flat to marginally down, early indications were for weaker opens, however, the French CPI miss has provided some modest support as investors start to pair risk positions ahead of the trifecta of central bank decisions ahead with the FOMC, ECB & BoE all on deck in the next 72hrs.
The dollar has caught a modest bid confirming the retreat in risk appetite to trade above the 102 handle, with the Euro looking to test 1.08, month end today FX volatility likely to be seen around London fixing at 4pm GMT as month end flows kick in (see Barclays Month End signal note below). As well as the central bank risk ahead, investors will also receive a number of significant earnings reports in the coming days with Meta, Apple, Amazon and Google all set to report, buckle up for a busy second half of the week which will be capped off on Friday with the all important Non Farm Payroll release!

Overnight News of Note

Asian Stocks Slip As Investors Eye Looming Central Bank Rate Decisions
Nasdaq 100 Suffers Its Biggest Drop In A Month
Gold Edges Higher, On Track For Third Straight Monthly Gain
IMF Raises World Economic Outlook For The First Time In A Year
China Economic Activity Swings Back To Growth In January
China ForMin Seeks Stronger Economic Ties With Saudi Arabia
Japan Dec Factory Output Inches Down, Retail Sales Beat Estimates
Japan FinMin: Too Early To Consider Reviewing Gov't-BoJ Statement
Australia Dec Retail Sales Post First Fall Of 2022; Yields Drop
US Treasury Increases Borrowing Estimate For The First Quarter
White House To End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations On May 11
IMF Slashes UK Growth Outlook, Adding Pressure On Chancellor Hunt
Israel Drone Responsible For Strike On Iranian Weapons Facility
Dollar Set For Fourth Monthly Drop As Fed Meeting Looms
Yen’s Rally Comes Unstuck As Traders Eye Hawkish Fed Outcome
Oil Set For Monthly Drop As Chinese Demand, Fed Meeting In Focus
Whirlpool Sees Improving Profitability As Material Costs Ease
Washington Halts Licences For US Companies To Export To Huawei
Samsung Electronics Q4 Profit Plummets Amid Global Chip Downturn

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST

(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)

EURUSD 1.0875, 1.0855, 1.0900
USDJPY 130.00, 129.00 127.50
AUDUSD .7075
USDCNY 6.8000

CFTC Data As of 27/01 ( Source Reuters)

USD net spec short in the Jan 18-24 period; $IDX -0.46%
EUR$ +0.86% in period, specs buy 7,365 contract long now +134,349
$JPY +1.56% in period yen short cut by 1,326 contracts now -21,635
GBP$ +0.44$ in period, short reduced by 763 contracts to -23,934
CAD specs -3,453 contracts now -30,712; AUD specs +449 contract now -33,171
BTC +7.45%, spec short increased by 810 contracts now -1,437
Next week's data likely mooted by Fed, ECB, BoE meets Feb 1-2 after period closes