Daily Market Outlook, August 19, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Financial markets remained stable, with global stocks near all-time highs following Donald Trump’s discussions with Ukraine's president and European officials, which concluded with a proposal for a summit with Russia. European equity-index futures rose as leaders from the US, Ukraine, Europe, and NATO expressed advancement in peace negotiations aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine. Oil prices dipped by 0.7% amid speculation that a ceasefire might result in increased Russian supplies. Asian markets were flat, while stocks in mainland China stayed close to their decade-highs. Japanese government bond futures fell further after a 20-year government bond auction attracted weak interest. Treasuries remained steady after S&P Global Ratings confirmed its AA+ long-term and A-1+ short-term ratings for the US. The dollar index showed little movement. Market sentiment was cautiously optimistic regarding the Ukraine peace talks after Trump encouraged Vladimir Putin to start planning a summit with Zelenskiy. Investors are gearing up for a crucial week as the Federal Reserve's annual Economic Policy Symposium begins on Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which could provide insights into future interest rate directions. After meeting with Zelenskiy and European leaders at the White House on Monday, Trump called Putin and urged him to start arrangements for a meeting with Zelenskiy. This proposal, envisioned as a direct encounter between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, followed by a trilateral meeting with the US, marked the latest effort by Trump to facilitate a swift resolution to a conflict that has persisted for over three years.

Last week’s economic data from China highlighted the ongoing challenges Beijing faces in using fiscal measures to bolster growth. Retail sales continued to disappoint, slowing to 3.7% year-on-year from 4.8% in June, while industrial production softened to 5.7% year-on-year from 6.8%. Although these figures can be volatile, they follow persistent weakness in investment, partly influenced by the government’s new policy aimed at curbing excess capacity, which appears to be dampening growth. While this drag may eventually be offset by large infrastructure initiatives—such as the recently announced RMB1 trillion Tibetan mega-dam project—it hampers short-term momentum and further erodes already fragile private sector confidence. Consumer confidence remains subdued, constraining households' ability to drive growth. Declining property values are a significant factor, with prices now down nearly 19% from their peak and unsold housing inventory continuing to climb. Adding to this is China’s unfavourable demographic trajectory, which signals weak future demand. By our estimates, the critical house-buying demographic of 25-44-year-olds will shrink from approximately 407 million today to 331 million by 2039 before stabilising. This structural shift exacerbates the difficulty of rebalancing the economy toward domestic demand, creating a scenario reminiscent of Japan’s prolonged economic stagnation—but potentially more severe.

Bitcoin may experience heightened profit-taking as traders anticipate Fed Chair Powell's address at the yearly Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The conference, considered the most significant policy event of the year, frequently influences the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. The unexpectedly strong Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday has "complicated the Fed's policy framework". Participants in the market are looking for "hints" regarding the central bank's potential approach prior to its September meeting. The recent decline in Bitcoin's value is also linked to traders "de-risking" as they prepare for the Fed's decision, with market uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the event.

Overnight Headlines

  • S&P Affirms US ‘AA+/A-1+’ Sovereign Ratings; Outlook Stable

  • Asian Currencies Consolidate Ahead Of Jackson Hole

  • Yuan May Strengthen Past 7 Per Dollar, Top China Economist Says

  • China’s Stock Rally Has The Makings Of A Durable Bull Run

  • Trump Admin In Talks To Take 10% Stake In Intel

  • Trump Pushes For Peace Summit With US, Russia And Ukraine

  • Ukraine Offers $100B Weapons Deal To US To Win Security Guarantees

  • Hamas Tells Mediators It Accepts Gaza Ceasefire Proposal

  • Reeves Looks At UK Property Tax Reforms In Bid To Boost Growth

  • BHP Full-Year Profit Falls 26% With Key Exports Pressured

  • Novo Nordisk Halves US Price Of Ozempic

  • UBS Raises Gold Target Price For H1 2026 To $3 700/Oz

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)


  • USD/JPY: 145.85 (373M), 147.30-40 (480M), 148.30-35 (709M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8010-20 (1.14BLN), 0.8080 (300M), 0.8100 (300M)

  • EUR/CHF: 0.9455 (316M). GBP/USD: 1.3500 (222M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8575 (316M), 0.8660-65 (310M), 0.8750 (359M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6390 (550M), 0.6445-50 (360M), 0.6470-85 (513M)

  • 0.6515 1.05BLN), 0.6545 (376M), 0.6570-75 (339M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5895 (290M), 0.6145 (286M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3650 (340M), 1.3750 (327M), 1.3770-80 (545M)

  • 1.3810 (217M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending August 15 

  • Speculators have reduced their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 49,646 contracts, bringing it down to 60,794. They have also decreased their net short position in CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 19,235 contracts to a total of 209,132. Additionally, speculators have lowered their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 17,611 contracts, resulting in a position of 942,223. Conversely, there has been an increase in the net short positions for CBOT US 5-year and 2-year Treasury futures, by 29,492 contracts to 2,566,369 and by 54,074 contracts to 1,379,597, respectively. 


  • Equity fund managers have raised their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 46,675 contracts, bringing it to 887,310, while equity fund speculators have increased their net short position by 74,016 contracts to a total of 396,132. 


  • The net long position in Japanese yen stands at 74,234 contracts, and the euro has a net long position of 115,431 contracts. On the other hand, the British pound has a net short position of -39,093 contracts, and the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -28,043 contracts. Lastly, Bitcoin’s net short position is recorded at -742 contracts...


Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish Above 6440 Target 6500

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish Above 6300 Target 6150

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish Below 1.17 Target 1.15

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish Below 1.1640 Target 1.14

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish above 1.3260 Target 1.34

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish Below 1.3360 Target 1.3050

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish Below 1.4880 Target 1.45

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.4770 Target 1.45

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bearish Below 3380 Target 3320

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish Above 3350 Target 3600

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish Below 116k Target 110k

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 118k Target 110k