USD/CAD
What happened previously?
The USD was mixed against its G10 peers as investors awaited key U.S. initial jobless claims data to gauge how virus-related shutdowns are impacting the labour market. According to the ADP job report released on Wednesday, private companies shed 27,000 employees for the period through March 12, while many investors think the actual losses for the month were much worse as indicated by jobless claims numbering in the millions. USDCAD could consolidate in ranges ahead of the Nonfarm payroll number.
What can we expect?
We are seeing price to test 1st resistance at 1.42677 and Stochastics is also reaching resistance level. 1st resistance level is a confluence level of horizontal swing high resistance and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement.
UKOIL
What happened previously?
Oil clawed back losses in early Asian trading despite a looming supply flood from Saudi Arabia and signs of deepening demand destruction. Saudi Arabia boosted production in March to a one-year high after the demise of OPEC plans to increase output this month to 12.3 million barrels a day. The slight pickup in oil price remains on shaky ground as countries around the world continue to tighten restrictions on activity to slow down the spread of Covic-19.
What can we expect?
We remain bearish for today’s trading. We are seeing the price to retest the first resistance at 27.89 and is likely to drop from there. Stochastics are reaching a new high at 94.01 which is a sign of bearishness. 1st resistance level happens to be where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement lines up with recent horizontal swing high.
XAUUSD
What happened previously?
1st April was the first day that those who held Gold April futures could demand delivery of gold. It turns out there’s plenty of supply available for those who want gold—more gold future holders roller over more than expected, reducing the demand for delivery in April.Gold liquidity crunch is not such a serious issue as a few weeks ago. Gold may follow market risk sentiment more, moving away from the liquidity worries.
What can we expect?
We turn bullish as the price is bouncing off our 1st support at 1569.79 and is likely to rise further from there. Stochastics is also showing signs of overbought for a bounce to happen. The 1st support happens to be where 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low line up well and could serve as a key support level.
XCUUSD
What happened previously?
On Thursday, China’s Tongling - China’s second-largest copper producer, says concentrate cargo loading may be affected as the coronavirus outbreak disrupts mine operations in South America. This could curb the supply side of copper and serves as a booster to recent sluggish Copper price.
What can we expect?
Our bullish view unchanged. We are seeing the price to retest our 1st support at 2.12838, which happens to be where the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support line up. Price is likely to bounce from here given the Stochastics also showing signs of oversold. This is in line with our fundamental view that copper price could see a relief from supply crunch.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.