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USD Falls Following Jobs Data
Bitcoin prices are back in the green on Monday with BTC futures breaking out to fresh all-time highs. The move comes amidst a weakening of the US Dollar on the back of a mixed set of US jobs data on Friday. While the headline NFP reading came in above expectations at 275k vs 198k expected, the unemployment rate was seen rising to 3.9% from 3.7% prior with wage growth seen dropping to 0.1% from 0.6% prior. A downward revision to the prior month’s NFP reading (229k from 353k) means that, overall, the report was received with a bearish bias. The main focus was the sharp drop in wage growth, seen as a key sign that inflation is likely to fall again near-term.
Powell Says Rate Cut Close
The data came hot on the heels of Fed chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. Powell told lawmakers that the Fed is now very close to getting enough evidence to cut rates, saying the bank needed just a little more. Expectations are still for the Fed to hold rates steady in March though traders now anticipate this meeting will be used to lay the groundwork for a summer rate cut.
US CPI Due Next
This week, focus will be on US CPI data due on Tuesday. If we see any undershooting of the current 3.1% forecast, this should be firmly bearish for USD, bringing rate-cut expectations forward and giving Bitcoin more fuel to push higher near-term as traders move capital out of bonds and chase higher yielding assets such as crypto.
Technical Views
BTC
The rally in BTC has seen the market breaking out to fresh highs above the 69355 level. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher near-term. Should we correct lower at any point, 64540 and 59755 will be the key support levels to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.