New Lows in BTC
Bitcoin is on watch this week after the futures market managed to climb back above the broken 2025 lows yesterday. BTC briefly dipped below the 76,830 level, printing fresh YTD lows of 74,635 before buyers stepped in and drove a rally higher. The leading crypto coin has been hard hit this year. Despite expectations that a Trump presidency would lead to a fresh rally and new record highs, BTC has instead slumped shed around 30%, confounding the slew of bullish forecasts we heard at the start of the year.
Massive ETF Outflows
Widespread market chaos in response to Trump’s tariff announcement last week has seen risk assets coming under heavy pressure with BTC clearly not immune to negative sentiment. Industry data shows that BTC ETFs recorded almost $200 million in outflows on Monday reflecting the severe drop in investor sentiment. With BTC breaking down to fresh YTD lows, a return to the year’s highs now looks like a far off dream.
Recovery Chances?
However, with price back above the 76,830 level there is clearly still demand underpinning the market and if bulls can defend this level and we see a broader recovery in risk sentiment near-term, a rally could still emerge. If we see any move towards negotiations on the trade front, this should be met with a strong recovery rally in risk markets helping spur BTC higher. However, any further escalation in the trade war runs the risk of driving crypto prices lower near-term.
Technical Views
BTC
The market has bounced off the retest of the 74,655 level, accompanied by strong bullish divergence in the RSI. For now though, price has yet to break back above the $80k mark. This is a key pivot and bulls need to see an imminent move back above this level to alleviate risks of a fresh push lower. Topside, 91,750 will be the next bull objective if we do push higher here.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.