BTC Volatility Persists
Bitcoin prices remain volatile and directionless so far this week. Following a surge higher in Bitcoin futures on Monday, the market reversed those gains entirely yesterday and is now sitting around the weekly opening price. The move lower yesterday came reflects an uptick in investor uncertainty in response to reports that the US is considering joining Israel’s war against Iran. Trump left the G7 summit early to meet with national security team at the White House.
US & Middle East
Trump has called on Iran to fully surrender or risk possible US intervention. The risk of such an escalation and the ramifications for stability in the wider Middle East is weighing on sentiment in crypto markets this week. If the US does join the war, this could spark a much fuller risk-off reaction across markets, opening the way for heavily lower prices in BTC near-term. On the other hand, if Iran does surrender (outside scenario) this could spark a relief rally.
Soaring Institutional Demand
Despite the downside in BTC yesterday, there looks to be a residual layer of demand kicking in each time the market turns lower. This likely reflects the huge institutional demand we’re seeing in the market as big players continue to focus on an eventual break higher. This week, both Michael Saylor’s Strategy fund and Japanese investor Metaplanet have announced fresh BTC purchases with Strategy purchasing over $1billion in BTC. This comes alongside data reflecting continued strength in BTC ETF inflows as mainstream investors hold onto the view that a breakout is still on the cards. While this demand backdrop holds, downside moves should remain limited near-term.
Technical Views
BTC
For now, price is holding between support at the $100k level, with the bull channel lows there to, and resistance at the $108,855 level. While support holds, focus remains on an eventual break higher, given the broad bull trend. To the topside, $120k and the channel highs will be the initial target. If we break lower, $91,750 will be the deeper support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.