BTC Remains in Range

Bitcoin remains firmly range-bound as we cross through the middle of the week. Following a rebound off the post-SEC lows, the leading crypto asset has failed to gain further bullish momentum and now sits in a congested block mid-way between 40345 – 45520. The price action reflects a market which is waiting on fresh drivers. The initial outflows seen on the back of the SEC granting historic approval to a slew of spot-BTC ETFs has now dried up, allowing for the recovery bounce. However, the much-vaunted bull move which many were hoping the approvals would grant, has failed to materialise yet.

Fed Push-Back Stunting BTC Bulls

One likely reason for this is the current Fed dynamic. With the Fed having shifted in recent months towards pushing back against near-term rate-cut calls, the market is left in a state of limbo. The Fed has repeated that rate-cuts are expected this year, however, policymakers continue to stress that they are in no rush to hike, removing any immediate incentive to go long in BTC. Indeed, with US data holding up surprisingly well, as per the latest set of bumper US jobs figures, rate cuts in H1 look highly unlikely now. As such, BTC is likely to continue to struggle until we start to get clear signs that rate cuts are imminent (< 3-months).

Technical Views

BTC

For now, BTC remains within the 40345 – 45520 range. Given the bull run prior to the correction over January, the broader focus remains on further upside with bulls looking for a topside break of 45520 to encourage fresh momentum towards 48350 and beyond.