BTC testing Key Resistance
Bitcoin prices are seeing a softer start to the week with the futures market currently in the red. Price is currently challenging the $108,855 level which has been a major upside barrier over the last two years. If bulls can get above this level and hold, this could usher in a new bull market for BTC. Bitcoin prices have improved over the last week amidst the rebound in risk sentiment linked to the Israel-Iran ceasefire and a renewed focus on US rate cut expectations. Looking ahead this week, BTC could easily breakout higher if risk sentiment improves further. Should the ceasefire hold, traders will be looking to Thursday’s US labour market data as the main focus. A fresh move lower in the jobs market (particularly if we see a downside surprise) should see Fed rate-cut expectations rising again, helping drive BTC higher.
Order Flow Shift
There’s been an interesting shift in BTC market dynamics recently. Soaring institutional and corporate demand for BTC ETFs has become a major driver of BTC price action. However, despite the ongoing headlines around soaring demand, BTC has failed to breakout. According to Capriole Investments, selling by long-term holders into recent highs has been the issue for BTC with LTH accounts looking to capitalise on higher prices. However, the firm notes that 6-month accounts (those holding BTC for 6-months or longer), which is typically associate with a more strategic view on the market, have been rising in volume. Typically, this dynamic has preceded bullish moves and as such, could be a sign that a BTC breakout is due near-term.
Technical Views
BTC
BTC is once again testing the $108,855 level following the bounce off the bull channel lows and $100k support. Despite weaker momentum studies readings, while that support holds, focus is on a breakout higher towards the $120k level and the bull channel highs.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.