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USD Softens Following FOMC Rally
The US Dollar is turning lower today as traders await the next set of US data inputs due later. On the back of the FOMC last week, the Dollar had initially rallied. Despite the Fed maintaining its projections for three rate cuts this year, traders saw hawkish risks in the upwards revised growth and inflation forecasts. However, that bullish momentum looks to have faded now as pricing for near-term rate-cuts grows on the back of the meeting with traders currently pegging June as the likely time for initial easing.
Data Due Today
Looking ahead today, traders will be watching the latest durable goods numbers for last month as well as consumer confidence. Both core and headline durable goods are expected to have risen back into positive territory following the drop over the prior month. If seen, this should help firm USD up a little. However, if forecasts are undershot, this will no doubt feed into the current USD selling. Similarly with consumer confidence, the most market moving outcome today would be a weaker number, putting fresh emphasis on near-term easing expectations and adding further bearish pressure to USD.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally off the 102.49 level has stalled for now into a test of the bear channel highs. With momentum studies weakening, a further move lower looks possible. However, while price holds above the 103.48 level bulls still have a shot at a fresh test of 104.95. Below 103.48, focus turns back to 102.49 again and 101.22 as a deeper bear-target.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.