The surprise in UK consumer inflation for May was incredibly strong, raising concerns that the Bank of England may go into overdrive with the policy tightening. GBPUSD initially tried to gain strength, but it quickly became clear that additional tightening measures could hurt the UK’s growth prospects, resulting in the Pound sell-off.

In May, UK consumer inflation reached 8.7%, surpassing the forecast of 8.4% (previously 8.7%). More importantly, core inflation continued to accelerate, hitting 7.1% in July, surpassing the projected 6.8% (previously 6.8%). This marks the second consecutive month of core inflation acceleration, jumping from 6.2% to 6.8% in April. Inflation in the services sector, known for its less volatile trends, exceeded the central bank's forecast by 0.3%, significantly increasing the pressure on the Bank of England. If the bank's response is perceived as too lenient, concerns may arise about their control over the situation. The market not only dismissed doubts about a 25 basis point rate hike at tomorrow's meeting but also factored in a potential 50 basis point increase. Market participants may also expect the central bank to forecast a prolonged period of high interest rates.

From a technical analysis perspective, GBPUSD is likely to continue its decline, with sellers eyeing the 1.258-1.262 range. This area is significant as it intersects an ascending trendline and a former resistance line that could now act as support:

The decline in the GBPUSD pair may also be influenced by a stronger dollar. Market participants are increasingly betting on the dollar rebound ahead of Powell's two-day testimony in Congress, starting today. Based on comments from Federal Reserve officials last week, Powell might take this opportunity to adjust market expectations, specifically addressing unwarranted expectations of rate cuts this year and emphasizing that the fight against inflation is far from over. Furthermore, the recent update to the Dot Plot indicated that officials anticipate two more rate hikes. However, the adjustment of derivative contracts sensitive to interest rates, particularly overnight interest rate swaps, did not reflect these expectations. The implied terminal rate is only 24 basis points higher than the current rate, which is well below two 25 basis point increases. This circumstance increases the likelihood of Powell engaging in a hawkish verbal intervention today.

A crucial factor for a potential dollar rally will be breaking out of the bearish channel and establishing a foothold above the upper boundary, corresponding to a breakthrough of the 102.75 level on the dollar index.